Who wins on Sunday?
Pick an upcoming Grand Prix and set the grid. The weather comes from the forecast for race start, and the model works out every driver's chance of winning and of reaching the podium.
Pick an upcoming Grand Prix and set the grid. The weather comes from the forecast for race start, and the model works out every driver's chance of winning and of reaching the podium.
Box, box. Set up the race and press “Predict race”. The most likely podium shows up here.
Heads-up: in the backtest the model's favourite won 53% of races, while “pole sitter wins” was right 61% of the time. How far to trust it
Before each 2026 Grand Prix the model only knew the earlier races. Afterwards it learns the result and is refit.
Last Grand Prix · R18Called it
United States Grand Prix
ANT won, from P1: we gave them 42%.
2026: the model's favourite won 12 of 18 races; the pole sitter, 13.
| Rd | Grand Prix | Winner | Favourite | Top 3 on podium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | United States | ANT42% | Called it:ANT | 2/3 |
| 17 | Singapore | VER69% | Called it:VER | 3/3 |
| 16 | Bahrain in Malaysia | VER31% | Called it:VER | 3/3 |
| 15 | Azerbaijan | RUS68% | Called it:RUS | 1/3 |
| 14 | Spanish | ANT25% | Missed:NOR | 3/3 |
| 13 | Italian | ANT3.2% | Missed:GAS | 1/3 |
| 12 | Dutch | NOR68% | Called it:NOR | 3/3 |
| 11 | Hungarian | NOR31% | Missed:HAM | 1/3 |
| 10 | Belgian | ANT47% | Called it:ANT | 2/3 |
| 9 | British | LEC10% | Missed:ANT | 2/3 |
| 8 | Austrian | RUS47% | Called it:RUS | 2/3 |
| 7 | Barcelona | HAM7.6% | Missed:RUS | 2/3 |
| 6 | Monaco | ANT80% | Called it:ANT | 2/3 |
| 5 | Canadian | ANT13% | Missed:RUS | 1/3 |
| 4 | Miami | ANT46% | Called it:ANT | 1/3 |
| 3 | Japanese | ANT77% | Called it:ANT | 2/3 |
| 2 | Chinese | ANT72% | Called it:ANT | 2/3 |
| 1 | Australian | RUS59% | Called it:RUS | 3/3 |
Walk-forward backtest: the model predicted 66 races from the last 3 seasons without having seen them, and was compared with a simple rule that only uses the grid.
| Metric | Model | Grid only |
|---|---|---|
| Favourite wins | 53% | 61% |
| Top 3 on the podium | 68% | 69% |
| Win AUC | 0.959 | 0.942 |
| Log loss (lower is better) | 0.292 | 0.311 |
The model ranks the whole field better (AUC and log loss), but when it has to name a single winner it is right less often than “pole sitter wins”. Read it as chances, not a sure bet.
Data to 2026-R18 · xgb-race-outcome 20261026.015244 · Results from Jolpica, weather from Open-Meteo. Independent project, not affiliated with Formula 1. Source on GitHub